Freitag, 11. Oktober 2013

Who will win the 2013 IRONMAN Hawaii Triathlon World Championship?We've got the top 10 list one day early...

3athlon introduced the little game of Top 10 picks and betting into the sport of triathlon in 1999. It's getting more and more popular and as always 1-2 days ahead of the final battle in the lava fields it is our turn. As always ahead the big races like Olympics or IRONMAN Hawaii World Championship it is the right time and place to pick our secret top contender list out of the pocket. 
On race day will provide once again with video, photos and some text updates. Four time World Champion Craig Alexander ist one of the guys who aim for podium and the top spot of the 2013 edition of this traditional race in the middle of the Pacific ocean. Screenshot:

The 2013 IRONMAN Hawaii has no big pre-race surprises - so far. Still one night of sleep or so to go. A short term DNS decision is easy made in that time frame. Just remember the green-yellow faces of Faris Al-Sultan (DNS) and Normann Stadler (DNF) in 2007 or the "she's-not-racing" Chrissie-Wellington effect in 2010 (DNS) due picked up bug too. Or the panic DNS from Luc van Lierde way back...


What's the environment deal in 2013? What are the conditions? Calmer conditions, than 2012 are to expect. Maybe it's going to be a little hotter out there, but the very last words belong in these areas to local surf weather forecasts.

What to expect

Speaking of "mild" or at least mediocre conditions we'll see a fast swim (thanks to a bunch of former swimmers and Olympians), a very hard bike (we heard you Andrew Starykowicz, Sebastian Kienle, Dirk Bockel, Pete Jacobs, et. al.) and a survival of the least knocked out athlete. On the women's side pretty much the same, but also some stellar running performances in terms of dynamics and splits. Last but not least our picks, based on statistics, pure insider knowledge, gut feelings, magic and a lot of guess work :) Some of them won't make it to the finish line and shake up the rankings.

Top female predictions (ca. 140 char)

  1. (5.) Caroline Steffen (healthy, improved last 3rd on the run, not overraced in summer)
  2. (1.) Mirinda Carfrae (working on overall bike:run balance)
  3. (2.) Rachel Joyce (overcame injuries at the right time)
  4. (12.) Leanda Cave (injury results in lack of quality training on the bike)
  5. (4.) Yvonne Van Vlerken (great season so far, windy conditions will result in lower 2014 bib number as shown here)
  6. (3.) Liz Blatchford (Rookie with a bit of run fast after tough bike weakness on a real windy day)
  7. (7.) Meredith Kessler (will climb up the ranks on tough weather conditions)
  8. (DNF) Jodie Swallow (injured, not 100% ready)
  9. (DNF) Heather Wurtele (another tough conditions contender)
  10. (8.) Michelle Vesterby (solid progression so far)
  11. (DNF) Anja Beranek (some extra KPR races will add a bit mental fatigue during last third of race into her account)
  12. (DNF) Mary Beth Ellis (without broken collarbone a top 3 contender; if stays in touch during the swim top 8 maybe possible)
  13. (11.) Amanda Stevens (injured, lack of run training)
  14. (14.) Natascha Badmann (came back from severe injury and still a powerhorse on the bike)
  15. (DNF) Sonja Tajsich (injured, lack of quality run training)

Top Male predictions

  1. (42.) Pete Jacobs (if orthopedics work, barely to beat this year)
  2. (3.) Sebastian Kienle (injured/sick: lack of base run mileage and bike economics. If unleashed his huge engine while muscleing his way through the field.)
  3. (DNF) Bevan Docherty (Kona Rookie to watch whole day out for; still in process of optimizing his nutrition & aero bike position. He is losing a few watts too much during the 180k bike leg this year.)
  4. (1.) Frederik Van Lierde (expect him on a calm and fast day closer to the podium)
  5. (11.) Eneko Llanos (no weakness, great races so far - maybe a few to many. But smart build-up last weeks. Could be his day if it is going to be an overall fast one. Had some back issues the last few days.)
  6. (4.) James Cunnama (strong development curve, maybe underrated)
  7. (23.) Craig Alexander (maybe not that much focussed due family demands and age, even if this may his last year.)
  8. (9.) Timo Bracht (lack of swim and mild conditions don't play in his cards. A tough day in the office on the bike would help him a lot.)
  9. (5.) Timothy O'Donnell (maybe underrated, esp. on easy and fast day.)
  10. (10.) Faris Al-Sultan (missing some leg speed on an "easy"/fast bike day during a marathon.)
  11. (DNF) Andreas Raelert (injured, Raelert brother typical run focussed: a few pounds muscle mass/body weight missing from 3athlon's perspective.)
  12. (DNS) Andy Potts (Body weight: too big for a hot day, accompanied with lower left leg issues.)
  13. (8.) Bart Aernouts (swim is improving, if he jumps the post-swim German bike express, he is in for top 8.)
  14. (DNS) Dave Dellow (a pure guess.)
  15. (DNF) Bas Diederen (on a fast and hot day missing some top speed.)

BTW: If we see a valid (non-DNF) bike course record it would be a Sebastian Kienle record or a 10 hour finish from Andrew Starykowicz. He might lose to much energy on the way up to Hawi and the windy sections around Scenic Point on the way back. If you like pick your Top 3/6 or 10 just use the comment box or visit for a chance to win some free stuff.

LIVE Streaming

World Triathlon Corporation's own site will feature as every year, starting from around 6:30am Hawaiian Standard Time (HST) video signal, text updates and a bunch of photo galleries. With new title sponsor GoPro we might see not only in award winning NBC race coverage later this year very nice and unique shots right from the action in the lava fields. German television hessenfernehen is featuring a live coverage from 6:25am on the internet as well, accompanied with a tv boradcasting from 12:00pm - 4:00pm HST.

  1. (Video, Leaderboard, Tracking, Photos, Text)
  2. (Video signal like above without the other stuff) 
  3. Hessenfernsehen (World Signal with German commentary)